China will launch 'tiangong' its first space station by the end of 2012 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/26/china-space-station-tiangong

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-10-15.

• Jessica Hartany estimated 10% on 2011-05-01
• gwern estimated 8% on 2011-05-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-05-24
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction right on 2012-10-15.
• Qiaochu said “Launched in September 2011: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiangong-1” on 2012-10-15