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There will be a terrorist attack on the US within the next month.

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-03; known on 2011-06-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-03.

  • DavidPercival estimated 15% on 2011-05-03
  • gwern estimated 5% and said “terrorist groups don’t work on operational tempo where they can launch attacks as they please. if they could, they would. only loners could on cue” on 2011-05-04
  • Eunseo estimated 3% on 2011-05-30
  • gwern said “taliban launched a number of embarassing pakistan attacks ostensibly over bin laden but no US attacks. marking wrong.” on 2011-06-03
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-03.