Bin Laden is still alive!

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

• minhduc estimated 58% on 2011-05-04
• Ben Doherty estimated 35% and said “There is a part of me that thinks you might be right, but it won’t be revealed in the next 2 months. He’s off paying ping pong with Elvis.” on 2011-05-04
• scav estimated 5% and said “Unlikely the USA would cut a deal with him, and if they’re just mistaken, it would be easy for him to prove he’s still alive; he hasn’t.” on 2011-05-04
• gwern estimated 3% and said “even Al Qaeda is apparently saying he’s dead, and it would be a huge propaganda coup if they could prove him alive…” on 2011-05-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-05-08
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% and said “I was very surprised by the news that he had been killed, as I had believed he was already dead and we just didn’t know the circumstances” on 2011-05-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-05-08
• geeyom   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-05-10.
• gwern   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-05-10.
• sdfjdslkjffj estimated 0% on 2011-05-13
• tedks estimated 0% on 2011-06-30
• papermachine estimated 1% on 2011-07-04
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-07-04.