Bin Laden is still alive!
- minhduc estimated 58% on 2011-05-04
- Ben Doherty estimated 35% and said “There is a part of me that thinks you might be right, but it won’t be revealed in the next 2 months. He’s off paying ping pong with Elvis.” on 2011-05-04
- scav estimated 5% and said “Unlikely the USA would cut a deal with him, and if they’re just mistaken, it would be easy for him to prove he’s still alive; he hasn’t.” on 2011-05-04
- gwern estimated 3% and said “even Al Qaeda is apparently saying he’s dead, and it would be a huge propaganda coup if they could prove him alive…” on 2011-05-07
- bobpage estimated 0% on 2011-05-08
- Nic_Smith estimated 1% and said “I was very surprised by the news that he had been killed, as I had believed he was already dead and we just didn’t know the circumstances” on 2011-05-08
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-05-08
- geeyom judged this prediction wrong on 2011-05-10.
- gwern judged this prediction unknown on 2011-05-10.
- sdfjdslkjffj estimated 0% on 2011-05-13
- tedks estimated 0% on 2011-06-30
- papermachine estimated 1% on 2011-07-04
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2011-07-04.
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