United States will engage in war by the end of the year

Created by blahblah on 2014-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• blahblah estimated 38% on 2014-07-30
• sigmaleph estimated 20% on 2014-07-31
• rebellionkid said “Declared war? Or just troops on the ground? It’s an annoyingly fuzzy concept these days.” on 2014-07-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.