“The world's first lunar tourist” by 2016

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-05-26
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2015.htm#space-adventures-future” on 2011-05-26
• gwern said “so, how’s Virgin’s space tourism going…” on 2011-05-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% and said “But my estimate for how likely this is to happen starts going up rapidly after 2025 or so. ” on 2011-05-28
• Anubhav estimated 20% on 2011-11-17
• lavalamp estimated 5% on 2011-11-17
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 3% on 2012-04-29
• lukas estimated 3% on 2012-05-24
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.
• gwern said “Musk and the other space companies are making a lot of progress though.” on 2016-01-01