'The first test launch of the Falcon Heavy'
- gwern estimated 80% on 2011-05-26
- gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2013.htm#falcon-heavy-2013” on 2011-05-26
- gwern said “they strike me as very competent. I’m sure they’ll make the test launch on schedule (successful or not)” on 2011-05-26
- JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2011-05-28
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-01.
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