'The first test launch of the Falcon Heavy'

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2011-05-26
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2013.htm#falcon-heavy-2013” on 2011-05-26
• gwern said “they strike me as very competent. I’m sure they’ll make the test launch on schedule (successful or not)” on 2011-05-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2011-05-28
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-01.