'The final collapse of the European Union'

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-18.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-06-07
• gwern said “http://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2030-2039.htm#european-union-collapse” on 2011-06-07
• gwern said “too specific. such things never really die.” on 2011-06-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-06-07
• Saliency said “I predict that the EU will be around longer then predictionbook..” on 2011-06-13
• Saliency said “For a prediction to be useful it needs to have a sane exercise date. IMHO anything beyond 5 years is silly in this context.” on 2011-06-13
• TheScholar estimated 70% and said “I don’t believe the EU can (in the long run) counteract the growing intolerance and nationalism in most conservative parties.” on 2011-06-16
• niekjetten   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-06-18.
• niekjetten said “Theresia is no Europeanen Union so it ca. not. Collapse” on 2011-06-18
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-06-18.
• JoshuaZ said “Niek, what are you talking about? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union among others would seem to disagree. ” on 2011-06-18
• najdorf estimated 80% on 2013-02-06
• Tuxedage estimated 30% on 2013-02-07
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 31% on 2016-10-08
• pranomostro estimated 25% on 2019-01-07