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'Facebook will be valued above 200B [at some point] within the next 5 years: 80% confidence' —Arthur Breitman

Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-05.

  • gwern estimated 60% on 2011-06-09
  • gwern said “For comparison, AAPL is at 306B right now, and GOOG at 166B.” on 2011-06-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2011-06-09
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 16% on 2011-06-11
  • kallman estimated 5% and said “Hasn’t facebook started losing users recently? 200 Billion is gigantic.” on 2011-06-22
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “Facebook’s market value closed above the $250 billion-mark on Monday for the first time since the social networking giant went public in May 2012.http://fortune.com/2015/07/13/facebook-250-billion/” on 2016-02-05
  • Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction right on 2016-02-05.
  • PseudonymousUser said “Sweet job with that 100% prediction” on 2016-02-05
  • Raahul_Kumar said “I’m on record, and have been for years saying Facebook. Apple, Netflix and Google are vastly overvalued. Enjoy this height for the instant it lasts.” on 2016-02-05