Christine Lagarde will be the next IMF president.

Created by Saliency on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Saliency on 2011-07-11.

• Saliency estimated 75% on 2011-06-09
• gwern said “IMF doesn’t have presidents…” on 2011-06-12
• Saliency said “So you think the chance is zero? Make the prediction.” on 2011-06-13
• gwern estimated 0% and said “Fine. IMF does not have presidents, only the World Bank does. and the chance of it being created in 15 days and Lagarde chosen is epsilon.” on 2011-06-14
• gwern said “lagarde chosen ‘managing director’, not president. marking wrong. if this bothers you, get your predictions right in the first place.” on 2011-07-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-07-05.
• Saliency   judged this prediction right on 2011-07-11.
• Saliency said “gwern your a tool. Have fun hanging out on PredictionBook all by yourself.” on 2011-07-11