Christine Lagarde will be the next IMF president.
- Saliency estimated 75% on 2011-06-09
- gwern said “IMF doesn’t have presidents…” on 2011-06-12
- Saliency said “So you think the chance is zero? Make the prediction.” on 2011-06-13
- gwern estimated 0% and said “Fine. IMF does not have presidents, only the World Bank does. and the chance of it being created in 15 days and Lagarde chosen is epsilon.” on 2011-06-14
- gwern said “lagarde chosen ‘managing director’, not president. marking wrong. if this bothers you, get your predictions right in the first place.” on 2011-07-05
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2011-07-05.
- Saliency judged this prediction right on 2011-07-11.
- Saliency said “gwern your a tool. Have fun hanging out on PredictionBook all by yourself.” on 2011-07-11
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