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Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01

  • JoshuaZ estimated 60% on 2011-06-09
  • JoshuaZ said “Life, not necessarily intelligent life. Predictions 1894, 5744 and 1685 are all subcases. ” on 2011-06-09
  • kallman estimated 20% and said “Confirming life is pretty dang hard! Though I’d love to be wrong, maybe detect methane or similar…? ” on 2011-06-16
  • JoshuaZ said “Methane occurs naturally. Free oxygen would be a better sign. But there are a lot of possible avenues. ” on 2011-06-16
  • scav estimated 70% and said “Yes if spectroscopic evidence counts as confirmation. No if we have to get there and take samples ;)” on 2011-06-20
  • faul_sname estimated 80% and said “I agree that a human present on that extraterrestrial body is unnecesary. We alreadybhave some sting evidence of microbial life on mars.” on 2011-07-01
  • Obsi estimated 90% on 2011-08-07
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 65% on 2011-08-07
  • JoshuaZ said “tags [astronomy][biology][aliens]” on 2011-09-06
  • muflax estimated 20% on 2011-11-02
  • gwern said “see also published by 2020 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/7070” on 2012-12-27
  • Tuxedage estimated 85% and said “If it’s merely “life”, rather than intelligent life, it seems fairly probable.” on 2012-12-28
  • Qiaochu estimated 50% on 2013-01-02
  • simplicio estimated 70% on 2013-01-03
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2013-01-05
  • NathanMcKnight said “Define “confirm”. Oxygen’s a pretty good biosig, methane too, both together is about as close as you get. But exoatmospheric spectra are DIRTY, so you’ll have arguments. I’d say multiple peer-reviewed reports is the bar” on 2013-01-11
  • NathanMcKnight said “…what if we detect something wacky, like free fluorine? Or seasonal fluctuations in spectra complementary to the star’s? Or “disappearing hydrogen and acetylene” like on Titan? Some will cry life…but maybe no consensus?” on 2013-01-11
  • najdorf estimated 50% on 2013-02-06
  • themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-08
  • JoshuaZ estimated 58% on 2016-10-08
  • JoshuaZ said “Nathan, intent was essentially scientific consensus. If there isn’t a clear consensus then gets marked wrong. ” on 2016-10-08
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 75% on 2020-09-13
  • JoshuaZ estimated 57% on 2020-09-13
  • Deepak estimated 5% on 2020-09-16
  • omni estimated 0% on 2021-07-23
  • omni estimated 2% on 2021-07-23
  • stepan estimated 2% on 2021-07-26
  • JoshuaZ estimated 54% on 2021-07-26
  • Baeboo estimated 40% on 2021-07-26