“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding

Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.

• Pavitra estimated 0% on 2011-06-16
• Pavitra said “Yuck, apparently “n/a” evaluates to zero when cast to int.” on 2011-06-16
• Pavitra said “Also, the link got cut off: http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding-economist/” on 2011-06-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “I’m not sure how to interpret “about”. I’m interpreting it at between 2% and 6% as a reasonable range of what is intended. ” on 2011-06-16
• gwern estimated 25% and said “I think 2-6 percent is way too generous (100% error counts as correct??). I’d buy no more than ±1%, and if this were my prediction, <±0.5%.” on 2011-06-17
• Pavitra said “There’s no decimal (not “4.0%”), so no tighter than ±0.5% (“not 3% and not 5%”). He said “about” though: maybe ±1%?” on 2011-06-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% and said “Given the use of “about” gwern’s interpretation seems reasonable. Changing my estimate accordingly. ” on 2011-06-17
• kuudes estimated 10% and said “http://oag.ca.gov/crime shows decreasing trend. 10% added in case i misunderstand something here.” on 2015-05-10
• JoshuaZ said “Anyone have current data on this? ” on 2015-06-16
• JoshuaZ said “The oag link only goes to 2013 but still shows a decline. It may make sense to adjust the deadline for this another year or two until we can get the data for those out? ” on 2015-06-16
• Pavitra said “Seems reasonable.” on 2015-06-16
• Pavitra changed the deadline from “on 2015-06-16” on 2015-06-16
• kuudes said “I run the latest data with http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/StateCrime.cfm and got 1.029 for California between 2012/2011 and 0.999 for United States total. The difference is 0.029 and ratio is 1.029, both less than 4%.” on 2015-06-16
• kuudes said “I would make a new prediction with new judgement date if one wants, instead of postponing the judgement date. And I would hold the difference side responsible for proof, so I would rule this false now.” on 2015-06-16
• JoshuaZ said “Ok. That seems to be clearly false then. ” on 2015-06-16
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-06-16.
• Pavitra said “kuudes’s link only has data through 2012. I get 154,943 in 2011 and 160,944 in 2012, which is a 3.9% increase.” on 2015-06-18
• Pavitra   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-06-18.
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-08
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-06-25.
• kuudes said “same source. California occurance rate has lowered faster than total US occurance.” on 2017-06-25