90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01

• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-06-17
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/691/shane_legg_on_risks_from_ai/ conditional on no global war/existential risk” on 2011-06-17
• gwern said “-10% http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2817 50% http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2818” on 2011-06-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-06-17
• kallman estimated 20% and said “Aww, your enthusiasm is catching. Was going to say 90 against.” on 2011-06-22
• faul_sname estimated 70% and said “The 30% uncertainty comes from existential risks.” on 2011-07-01
• Konkvistador estimated 40% on 2011-07-21
• Anubhav estimated 90% on 2011-10-12
• muflax estimated 20% on 2011-10-26
• lavalamp estimated 48% on 2011-11-10
• Cy Fleming estimated 19% on 2012-04-20
• Tuxedage estimated 20% on 2013-01-03
• Qiaochu estimated 30% on 2013-01-03
• Raziel estimated 50% on 2013-03-07
• adbge estimated 66% on 2014-01-29
• artir estimated 25% on 2016-03-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 100% on 2016-03-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 76% on 2016-10-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 54% on 2016-10-08
• davatk estimated 20% on 2018-04-26
• kiimberlie estimated 25% on 2018-05-16
• wassname estimated 60% on 2018-08-12
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2019-01-07