Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-06-21
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 10% on 2011-06-22
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 10% on 2011-06-22
• kallman estimated 1% and said “He’s already campaigning! Are we calibrating this on the chance he’s murdered or otherwise incapacitated?” on 2011-06-22
• gwern estimated 2% and said “IIRC, the official papers haven’t been filed yet. I suppose there’s a non-trivial chance he’ll be assassinated.” on 2011-06-22
• dkidston estimated 5% on 2011-06-24
• faul_sname estimated 8% and said “Or has a health problem.” on 2011-07-01
• papermachine estimated 2% on 2011-07-04
• Nic_Smith estimated 5% on 2011-07-04
• muflax estimated 5% on 2011-07-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2011-07-21
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2011-07-21
• HonoreDB estimated 1% on 2011-11-08
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-11-08
• moridinamael estimated 2% on 2011-11-10
• lavalamp estimated 1% on 2011-11-10
• NathanMcKnight estimated 0% and said “Because it wouldn’t let me enter 0.0001%, and nothing is 0%. ” on 2011-11-12
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-11-17
• Nic_Smith estimated 2% on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-20.