“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.”

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-06-22
• gwern said “http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2011/06/2019_unthinkabl.php for this one, I would accept either Federal or State level.” on 2011-06-22
• gwern said “put so low because, well, is anyone even lobbying for this at all?” on 2011-06-22
• faul_sname estimated 15% and said “By 2025” on 2011-07-01
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2011-07-14
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-08
• unexpectedEOF estimated 4% on 2018-06-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.