“The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each.”

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• gwern estimated 95% on 2011-06-22
• gwern said “1.85 in 2000: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Demographics_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China#Total_fertility_rate” on 2011-06-22
• gwern said “http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2011/06/2019_unthinkabl.php” on 2011-06-22
• gwern estimated 75% and said “given the 2000 rate, we can expect it to continue dropping although a 2009 World Bank datapoint says it’s only down to 1.8, so drop probability a bit.” on 2011-06-22
• gwern said “omitted China encouraging immigration; subjective, true in part https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Overseas_Chinese#Relationship_with_China” on 2011-06-22
• gwern said “Economist says China census puts TFR=1.4! http://www.economist.com/node/18651512 That didn’t take very long did it…” on 2011-06-22
• Konkvistador estimated 90% on 2011-07-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-08
• Bruno Parga said “Seems pretty stable just over 1.6” on 2019-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.