“A rash of new-age-techno cults sweep an exhausted Russia.”

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-06-22
• gwern said “http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2011/06/2019_unthinkabl.php” on 2011-06-22
• gwern said “hard to judge, add it anyway. low probability because cults are exponential sorts of things and they should be in the knee right now to make 2019” on 2011-06-22
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-08
• gwern said “I haven’t heard anything about such things beyond the usual very low baserate of quasi-transhumanism pseudoscience, has anyone else? marking wrong unless someone can show a lot of such unreported cults with at least hundreds of thousands.” on 2019-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.