“A rash of new-age-techno cults sweep an exhausted Russia.”

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 5% on 2011-06-22
  • gwern said “http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2011/06/2019_unthinkabl.phpon 2011-06-22
  • gwern said “hard to judge, add it anyway. low probability because cults are exponential sorts of things and they should be in the knee right now to make 2019on 2011-06-22
  • themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-08
  • gwern said “I haven’t heard anything about such things beyond the usual very low baserate of quasi-transhumanism pseudoscience, has anyone else? marking wrong unless someone can show a lot of such unreported cults with at least hundreds of thousands.on 2019-01-01
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-01-01.

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