P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-06-27
• gwern said “https://rjlipton.wordpress.com/2011/06/24/polls-and-predictions-and-pnp/” on 2011-06-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-06-27
• gimpf estimated 50% on 2011-07-14
• JoshuaZ said “tags: math, computer science” on 2011-09-04
• Anubhav estimated 50% on 2011-10-12
• rebellionkid estimated 50% on 2014-06-22
• anonym estimated 75% on 2014-09-30
• adbge estimated 25% on 2014-09-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2014-12-04
• reallyyesreally said “So basically, you guys are providing the same level of insight as a coin toss. Thanks for that, this has been invaluable. ” on 2014-12-05
• JoshuaZ said “Who is we trying to do anything? Different people make different estimates. In the long run, that will show up in trends in individual predicter’s abilit or lack. If many give close to 50% on a question, then bthe question is tough. ” on 2014-12-05
• JoshuaZ said “reallyyesreally, are you trying to use this website seriously or just trolling?” on 2014-12-05
• benwr estimated 60% on 2015-01-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 6% on 2016-07-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 14% on 2016-10-08
• pranomostro estimated 55% on 2019-01-07