'The complexity class BQP, bounded-error quantum polynomial time, will be shown to lie in the polynomial hierarchy.' in 2011 —Lipton

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-06-27
• gwern said “I have no idea, comments about nerviness aside; https://rjlipton.wordpress.com/2011/01/02/predictions-past-and-future/” on 2011-06-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-06-30
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.