'A Clay problem will be solved by two independent researchers at about the same time.' in 2011 —Lipton

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 1% on 2011-06-27
  • gwern said “I see no reason to believe any of the remaining clay prizes will be solved next year, much less that the same one will be solved by 2 people simultaneously.on 2011-06-27
  • bobpage estimated 1% on 2011-07-21
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-07-21
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.

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