'A Clay problem will be solved by two independent researchers at about the same time.' in 2011 —Lipton

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-06-27
• gwern said “I see no reason to believe any of the remaining clay prizes will be solved next year, much less that the same one will be solved by 2 people simultaneously.” on 2011-06-27
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-07-21
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-07-21
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.