'A Clay problem will be solved by two independent researchers at about the same time.' in 2011 —Lipton
- gwern estimated 1% on 2011-06-27
- gwern said “I see no reason to believe any of the remaining clay prizes will be solved next year, much less that the same one will be solved by 2 people simultaneously.” on 2011-06-27
- bobpage estimated 1% on 2011-07-21
- JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-07-21
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.
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