the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky

Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-06-29
• gwern said “http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/05/the-coming-death-shortage/4105/” on 2011-06-29
• gwern said “think it will either be much longer or shorter.” on 2011-06-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-06-30
• faul_sname estimated 5% and said “You’re quite the pessimist.” on 2011-07-01
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2011-07-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-07-21
• Konkvistador estimated 1% on 2011-07-21
• Porejide estimated 15% and said “If we take de Grey as reference class, he is actually somewhat of a pessimist… http://www.life-exchange.com/news/articles/dr.aubrey_de_grey_and_dr.s._jay_olshansky_debate_radical_humanlifespane/” on 2011-08-04
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 5% on 2012-04-29
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2012-05-13
• Pablo said “Related: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8444” on 2012-10-01
• themusicgod1 estimated 12% on 2016-10-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2016-10-08
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-12-08
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2018-12-12
• pranomostro estimated 7% on 2019-01-07