Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel

Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-07-02
• gwern said “http://www.nicerodds.co.uk/nobel-prize-in-literature IMO, murakami is too ‘popular’ and understandable, and Japan does poorly in Nobels” on 2011-07-02
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 7% on 2011-07-03
• papermachine estimated 80% on 2011-07-04
• Laurent Bossavit said “tags: literature” on 2011-09-04
• Serge estimated 12% on 2011-10-01
• ka   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-03.
• ka   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-03.
• ka estimated 4% on 2011-10-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-10-03
• PseudonymousUser said “papermachine, did you mean 80% against?” on 2011-10-05
• ka   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-06.