The majority of people will not worship man-made Gods by the year 2030.

Created by dragonfly on 2011-07-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.

• dragonfly estimated 50% on 2011-07-04
• dragonfly   judged this prediction right on 2011-07-04.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-07-04.
• JoshuaZ said “There’s no way you could know now. Do you understand the website? The % is your estimate for how sure you are. Post deadline it is judged right or wrong.” on 2011-07-04
• gwern said “What is a man-made god anyway?” on 2011-07-04
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-08
• Bruno Parga said “I say this is wrong, if one assumes (per Occam) that all gods are man-made and given that the majority of people are religious.” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-03.