NGE: Asuka will die in Stage 86 or 87 of the manga.

Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-07.

  • gwern estimated 40% on 2011-07-04
  • gwern estimated 20% and said “mm. the probability shouldn’t be that high because it’s a conjunction – asuka will die and will die in specific chapters.on 2011-07-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-07-05
  • gwern said “stage 87 was released; she’s still alive because the MPEs are going after Shinjion 2011-09-07
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-07.

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