NGE: Asuka will die in Stage 86 or 87 of the manga.

Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-07.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-07-04
• gwern estimated 20% and said “mm. the probability shouldn’t be that high because it’s a conjunction – asuka will die and will die in specific chapters.” on 2011-07-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-07-05
• gwern said “stage 87 was released; she’s still alive because the MPEs are going after Shinji” on 2011-09-07
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-09-07.