By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner

Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-07-10
• gwern said “http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=9562” on 2011-07-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2011-07-21
• Konkvistador   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-07-21.
• Konkvistador   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-07-21.
• Konkvistador   judged this prediction right on 2011-07-21.
• Konkvistador   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-07-21.
• Konkvistador estimated 20% on 2011-07-21
• Athrelon estimated 20% on 2012-09-27
• RandomThinker estimated 30% on 2012-09-28
• JoshuaZ said “Splitting up economies measured how? Is the EU a single economy for example?” on 2012-09-28
• Pablo estimated 10% and said “I can see few scenarios where India’s economy is larger than China’s.” on 2012-10-01
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2012-10-01
• Jayson Virissimo said “My prior was super low, but Sumner knows a lot of things that I don’t know.” on 2012-10-01
• Pablo said “My estimate didn’t take Sumner’s post into account; I might update it once I read it.” on 2012-10-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2019-01-07
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-07
• Vaibhav_Srivastva   judged this prediction right on 2020-12-01.
• Vaibhav_Srivastva   judged this prediction right on 2020-12-01.