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I will be raided or searched over my Silk Road article.

Created by gwern on 2011-07-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

  • gwern estimated 1% on 2011-07-12
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2011-07-15
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-07-22
  • fergus estimated 2% on 2011-09-05
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Unlikely, and BitCoin is just turning out to be not nearly as interesting or threatening as it might have seemed. The feds just don’t care. ” on 2011-11-17
  • JoshuaZ said “(Above update also due to most of the time for this prediction having passed.)” on 2011-11-17
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-11-29
  • gwern said “haven’t heard a thing. definitely wrong, as expected, despite the SR article being like the second most popular article on my site and a standard link in discussions of SR. I told kiba he was being overly paranoid…” on 2012-01-02
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-02.