My SR thread on Bitcoin forums will be deleted or otherwise hidden or suppressed.

Created by gwern on 2011-07-17; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-18.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-07-17
• gwern said “prediction can short-circuit, obviously. the thread is: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=29737.0” on 2011-07-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-07-18
• gwern said “that didn’t take very long, now did it? thread is deader than a doornail and doesn’t even appear in my profile. I see I was underconfident…” on 2011-07-18
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-07-18.