PredictionBook is now read-only (

My SR thread on Bitcoin forums will be deleted or otherwise hidden or suppressed.

Created by gwern on 2011-07-17; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-18.

  • gwern estimated 25% on 2011-07-17
  • gwern said “prediction can short-circuit, obviously. the thread is: 2011-07-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-07-18
  • gwern said “that didn’t take very long, now did it? thread is deader than a doornail and doesn’t even appear in my profile. I see I was underconfident…on 2011-07-18
  • gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-07-18.