Michele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day

Created by Jach on 2011-07-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-06.

  • Jach estimated 75% on 2011-07-20
  • Jach made the prediction visible to creator on 2011-07-20
  • Jach made the prediction visible to everyone on 2011-08-18
  • JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-08-18
  • kilobug estimated 5% on 2012-09-07
  • Qiaochu estimated 0% and said “Nobody’s paying attention to Michele Bachmann and the most obvious reference class contains very few other examples of this happening to my knowledge. on 2012-10-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-10-14
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-10-16
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 5% on 2012-10-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2012-10-19
  • gwern estimated 0% and said “what sort of drug addict?on 2012-10-21
  • Sarokrae estimated 0% on 2012-11-05
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-06.
  • JoshuaZ said “Can someone take care of the spammer please?on 2012-11-12
  • RandomThinker said “secondon 2012-11-12
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