Michele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day

Created by Jach on 2011-07-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-06.

Jach estimated 75% on 2011-07-20
Jach made the prediction on 2011-07-20
Jach made the prediction on 2011-08-18
JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-08-18
kilobug estimated 5% on 2012-09-07
Qiaochu estimated 0% and said “Nobody’s paying attention to Michele Bachmann and the most obvious reference class contains very few other examples of this happening to my knowledge. ” on 2012-10-14
JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-10-14
Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-10-16
NathanMcKnight estimated 5% on 2012-10-19
JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2012-10-19
gwern estimated 0% and said “what sort of drug addict?” on 2012-10-21
Sarokrae estimated 0% on 2012-11-05
JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-06.
JoshuaZ said “Can someone take care of the spammer please?” on 2012-11-12
RandomThinker said “second” on 2012-11-12
gwern said “I’ve emailed Fallshaw.” on 2012-11-12
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