Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-25; known on 2061-01-01

  • JoshuaZ estimated 90% on 2011-07-25
  • JoshuaZ said “Should expect about one supernova in Milky Way every fifty years + current methods can detect supernova neutrinos from nearby galaxies + tech improving.on 2011-07-25
  • gwern estimated 85% on 2011-07-25
  • JoshuaZ estimated 82% and said “Thought about this more. Probably overconfident. on 2011-07-31
  • JoshuaZ said “Also to clarify, this doesn’t apply to relic neutrinos or similar situations where we can’t specifically identify the source even if we are sure it is from outside the solar system. on 2011-08-07
  • Obsi estimated 90% on 2011-08-07
  • JoshuaZ said “tag:science, astronomy, astrophysicson 2011-09-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 81% and said “Updating on year gone by. on 2012-07-15
  • JoshuaZ said “News reports say the Indian detector may end up actually happening This doesn’t seem to impact probabilities much at this point though. on 2013-05-06
  • JoshuaZ estimated 85% and said “Upgrade due to improvements in IceCube which suggest that similar detectors may be able to have much more sensitivity than would otherwise be apparent. on 2014-05-05
  • JoshuaZ estimated 88% and said “Update due to paper in Physics Review D about black hole neutrino sources. on 2014-11-28
  • JoshuaZ estimated 89% and said “ is good evidence that our basic models are correct, and suggests we may have some hope detecting non-supernova sources with slightly more work. on 2015-05-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 92% and said “ is very close but not quite there yet, since we don’t really have specific sources confirmed. But this is making it look substantially more likely. Updating probability. on 2015-08-21
  • JoshuaZ said “ 95% certain that this is the source of Big Bird. Is this enough for marking correct or wait? on 2016-05-02
  • themusicgod1 estimated 63% on 2016-10-09

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