A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year.
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
- scav estimated 99% on 2011-07-28
- JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2011-07-28
- gwern estimated 99% on 2011-07-28
- PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2011-07-29
- Jach estimated 100% on 2011-08-18
- fergus estimated 99% on 2011-08-18
- Laurent Bossavit estimated 97% on 2011-09-04
- Laurent Bossavit said “tags: energy” on 2011-09-04
- Ken estimated 100% on 2011-09-10
- gimpf estimated 100% on 2011-10-08
- Sniffnoy estimated 99% on 2011-10-08
- jasticE estimated 99% on 2011-10-09
- PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2011-10-09
- Sly judged this prediction right on 2011-10-09.
- Sniffnoy judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-09.
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 99% on 2011-10-10
- Anubhav estimated 100% on 2011-10-10
- Michael Stevens estimated 99% on 2011-10-12
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-10-19
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 100% and said “whoops” on 2011-10-19
- TrE estimated 99% on 2011-10-26
- JoshuaZ said “So, demonstration has occurred but is very sketchy. Looks like a conjob. Should we just wait to judge for a while? ” on 2011-10-29
- gwern said “source on conjob?” on 2011-10-29
- JoshuaZ said “ http://hardware.slashdot.org/story/11/10/28/030244/1-mw-cold-fusion-plant-supposedly-to-come-online As discussed in that thread, Rossi is known conartist and is restricting media. See http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2011-10/06/e-cat-cold-fusion” on 2011-10-29
- Michael Stevens judged this prediction right on 2011-10-31.
- Laurent Bossavit judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-03.
- Laurent Bossavit judged this prediction right on 2011-11-03.
- Laurent Bossavit said “I’m not sure whether this should be left open (because it’s not clear yet what was demonstrated) or judged right because it only output 470kw, not 1MW.” on 2011-11-03
- Anubhav said “So, either (a) it wasn’t demonstrated or (b) it was demonstrated but the output wasn’t 1MW. Sounds right in either case.” on 2011-11-03