The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season.

Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-16.

• papermachine estimated 40% on 2011-08-03
• gwern estimated 5% and said “plurality voting has huge pressures for two party system, fragmenation would be massive self-sabotage (cf. teddy roosevelt)” on 2011-08-03
• gwern said “also, how would we judge this? I was assuming a formal split with multiple nominees polling >10% of the populace or something…” on 2011-08-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2011-08-03
• Konkvistador estimated 5% on 2011-08-06
• muflax estimated 2% on 2011-11-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-11-05
• NathanMcKnight estimated 10% and said “I could see a Blue Dog flight if OWS drives the party to the left, but they’d be unlikely to form a new party. More likely they’d be absorbed by the Republicans or Libertarians, whichever are seen as being most centrist.” on 2011-11-12
• Athrelon estimated 0% on 2012-09-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2012-09-28
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2016-01-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “Nope.” on 2016-01-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-01-10
• Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-16.