The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season.
- papermachine estimated 40% on 2011-08-03
- gwern estimated 5% and said “plurality voting has huge pressures for two party system, fragmenation would be massive self-sabotage (cf. teddy roosevelt)” on 2011-08-03
- gwern said “also, how would we judge this? I was assuming a formal split with multiple nominees polling >10% of the populace or something…” on 2011-08-03
- JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2011-08-03
- Konkvistador estimated 5% on 2011-08-06
- muflax estimated 2% on 2011-11-05
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-11-05
- NathanMcKnight estimated 10% and said “I could see a Blue Dog flight if OWS drives the party to the left, but they’d be unlikely to form a new party. More likely they’d be absorbed by the Republicans or Libertarians, whichever are seen as being most centrist.” on 2011-11-12
- Athrelon estimated 0% on 2012-09-27
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2012-09-28
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2016-01-02
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% and said “Nope.” on 2016-01-10
- JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-01-10
- Raahul_Kumar judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-16.
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