“Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years” —Roger Ver

Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2013-08-04; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-08-31.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2011-08-04
• gwern said “https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34320.msg427514#msg427514” on 2011-08-04
• gwern said “probably basically equals odds of takeoff” on 2011-08-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-08-04
• fergus estimated 10% on 2011-08-18
• gwern said “official canonical bet: http://longbets.org/611/ this bet will be judged in accordance with Long Bets’ resolution barring some grotesque and obvious injustice” on 2011-08-21
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2011-08-21
• gwern said “I learned something interesting on HN – predictors are allowed to decline bet offers! http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3263807” on 2011-11-22
• gwern said “update: he thinks it’s going well http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxC0dIBPzZg” on 2012-08-05
• ShIxtan estimated 5% on 2013-04-30
• Michael Dickens estimated 15% on 2013-07-08
• mfb   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-08-31.
• mfb said “Bitcoins increased their value, but not 100x compared to gold or silver.” on 2013-08-31