Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years.

Created by papermachine on 2011-08-05; known on 2016-08-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-08-05.

• papermachine estimated 30% on 2011-08-05
• papermachine said “Context: http://terrytao.wordpress.com/2011/08/04/localisation-and-compactness-properties-of-the-navier-stokes-global-regularity-problem/ and associated comments he’s made over the years.” on 2011-08-05
• gwern estimated 1% and said “it’s tao, yes, but 5 years is extremely fast and that’s assuming he’s doing a lot of serious work on it” on 2011-08-05
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-08-05
• Konkvistador estimated 2% on 2011-08-06
• papermachine estimated 10% and said “Update (unrelated to prediction change) http://terrytao.wordpress.com/2011/08/07/a-correction-to-localisation-and-compactness-properties-of-the-navier-stokes-global-regularity-problem/” on 2011-08-07
• Qiaochu estimated 1% and said “Agree with gwern. ” on 2012-10-14
• RandomThinker estimated 5% on 2012-10-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-10-15
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2012-10-16
• rchrdbrg estimated 29% on 2014-02-09
• adbge estimated 1% on 2014-02-10
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-08-05.