Dow Jones below 10,000 at end of year.

Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-08-05
• gwern said “https://pay.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/j8s2o/my_prediction_is_that_the_dj_will_fall_under/” on 2011-08-05
• Konkvistador estimated 55% on 2011-08-06
• papermachine estimated 70% on 2011-08-08
• gwern said “see also” on 2011-08-10
• gwern said “http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2987” on 2011-08-10
• JoshuaZ said “tags [stock market][economics][dow]” on 2011-09-15
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.