The Dow Jones will be at least 11,000 on January 1st, 2012

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-08-09
  • gwern estimated 50% and said “call me buying into the current climate of fear and doom but I don’t see things improving that muchon 2011-08-10
  • bobpage estimated 43% on 2011-08-10
  • JoshuaZ said “Gwern, it seems that your estimate here isn’t consistent with your estimate at If there’s a 60% chance it will be below 10,000 then shouldn’t you be at least 60 against on this one? on 2011-09-15
  • JoshuaZ  judged this prediction right on 2012-01-01.

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