The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2011-08-09
• gwern estimated 70% on 2011-08-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 68% and said “Running into funding problems again. Not the first time that’s happened, but does reduce confidence slightly. See http://www.europolitics.info/sectorial-policies/ep-endorses-framework-extension-iter-finances-still-in-limbo-art318458-14.html” on 2011-11-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 4% and said “The date for the First Plasma is set for December 2025 https://www.euro-fusion.org/2016/06/endorsed-december-2025-for-iter-first-plasma/” on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-03
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2019-01-04
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-01.