In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal.
- JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2011-08-10
- JoshuaZ said “This doesn’t apply to classes already known to be equal or distinct that are already listed. See http://qwiki.stanford.edu/index.php/Complexity_Zoo . I may be too optimistic. ” on 2011-08-10
- gwern said “There are an awful lot of classes… what’s the base rate here? How many have been show to be equal or unequal in the last 5 years?” on 2011-08-10
- JoshuaZ said “This year, ACC was shown to be distinct from NEXP by Ryan Willians. In 04, Reingold showed that L=SL. In 09, Kuperberg showed that A_0PP = SBQP. I don’t know of any other recent. So base rate would be about one every 3 or 4 years about? ” on 2011-08-10
- gwern estimated 65% on 2011-08-12
- davidmanheim estimated 65% on 2016-08-02
- themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-09
- davidmanheim said “This is a bit contentious still – I think JoshuaZ needs to weigh in on what he thinks of the potential answers; http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/2055417/have-any-complexity-classes-been-shown-to-be-equal-or-non-equal-in-the-past-five” on 2017-01-12
- davidmanheim judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-01.
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