In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-10; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2011-08-10
• JoshuaZ said “This doesn’t apply to classes already known to be equal or distinct that are already listed. See http://qwiki.stanford.edu/index.php/Complexity_Zoo . I may be too optimistic. ” on 2011-08-10
• gwern said “There are an awful lot of classes… what’s the base rate here? How many have been show to be equal or unequal in the last 5 years?” on 2011-08-10
• JoshuaZ said “This year, ACC was shown to be distinct from NEXP by Ryan Willians. In 04, Reingold showed that L=SL. In 09, Kuperberg showed that A_0PP = SBQP. I don’t know of any other recent. So base rate would be about one every 3 or 4 years about? ” on 2011-08-10
• gwern estimated 65% on 2011-08-12
• davidmanheim estimated 65% on 2016-08-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-09
• davidmanheim said “This is a bit contentious still – I think JoshuaZ needs to weigh in on what he thinks of the potential answers; http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/2055417/have-any-complexity-classes-been-shown-to-be-equal-or-non-equal-in-the-past-five” on 2017-01-12
• davidmanheim   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-11-01.