Ron Paul will be dead by 2017.

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “actuarily, he has ~11 years left, but he’s a doctor in what seems like very good health, so 6 years? easily done. I may be overconfident putting his rate at 20%” on 2011-08-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2011-08-13
• u_ estimated 10% on 2011-08-13
• Ken estimated 18% on 2011-09-10
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2011-11-15
• Grognor estimated 15% on 2011-12-06
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-09
• gwern said “age 81, still ticking: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paul” on 2017-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.