'John Bolton to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012'
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
- gwern estimated 0% on 2011-08-13
- gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=741644” on 2011-08-13
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-08-14
- saturn estimated 0% on 2012-08-25
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-30.