“Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by falenas108 on 2012-04-19.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=656777” on 2011-08-13
• Isaac estimated 10% on 2011-11-02
• falenas108 estimated 20% on 2011-11-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-11-03
• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2011-12-12
• Tiresias estimated 10% on 2011-12-20
• falenas108   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-19.