“Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 8% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “I think intrade is a little pessimistic here. she is the logical candidate if the democrats turn on obama.” on 2011-08-13
• gwern estimated 5% and said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743478” on 2011-08-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2011-08-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2011-08-13
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% and said “This reminds me of Gore04 and gore08 on the Foresight Exchange. Won’t happen: The Democrats would have to turn on Obama. He’d have to either not run or face Clinton as a primary challenger. She’d then have to actually win, twice.” on 2011-08-14
• u_ estimated 1% on 2011-08-14
• OMFGscience estimated 1% on 2011-08-22
• anonym estimated 10% on 2011-08-23
• Serge estimated 4% on 2011-09-01
• ahartell estimated 5% on 2011-09-03
• Ken estimated 1% on 2011-09-11
• ahartell estimated 1% on 2012-01-03
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.