“Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=669534 6%” on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “what is it with Intrade & Ron Paul? You could make so much money off Ron Paul fans there in the past…” on 2011-08-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2011-08-13
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
• Sniffnoy estimated 33% on 2011-10-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2011-10-11
• Isaac estimated 100% on 2011-10-17
• JoshuaZ said “isaac, did you mean to make that for and not against? ” on 2011-10-17
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% and said “maybe isaacn16 is planning to assassinate all the other candidates” on 2011-10-19
• endoself estimated 3% on 2011-12-22
• ahartell estimated 1% on 2012-01-03
• saturn estimated 1% on 2012-08-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2012-08-26
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-30.