“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=745020&z=1313200356674 non-trading 99%” on 2011-08-13
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2013-12-31.