“David Cameron to no longer be Prime Minister before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750678 10% (I don’t understand UK politics well)” on 2011-08-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2011-08-13
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 10% on 2011-09-04
• chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2011-11-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.