“Rupert Murdoch to depart as CEO of News Corp before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750679 at 21.1%” on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “I think people are voting what they wish to happen on Intrade. murdoch answers to no one – a billionaire != politician or public servant (cop). he serves at his own pleasure.” on 2011-08-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2011-08-13
• chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2011-11-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-12-26
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.