“Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-08-13; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-13.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=746828 30%” on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “beat ron paul too: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/michele-bachmann-wins-the-ames-straw-poll/2011/08/13/gIQApgnoDJ_blog.html” on 2011-08-13
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-08-13.