“Michele Bachmann to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-28.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750067 30%” on 2011-08-13
• chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2012-01-28
• gwern said “bachman already dropped out, marking right (Intrade at 100%, expired)” on 2012-01-28
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-01-28.