“Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.

• gwern estimated 3% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745285 5.5%” on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “she has a better chance than Ron Paul, anyway…” on 2011-08-13
• endoself estimated 2% on 2011-12-22
• saturn estimated 0% on 2012-08-25
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-08-30.