“Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=748415 3.5%” on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “so, her odds of being nominee is 5.5%, and her odds of being elected is 3.5% – or, conditional on being nominee, she has a 63% (3.5/5.5) chance of winning‽‽‽ Intrade is on crack” on 2011-08-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “It may be the logic is something like that even winning the primary would indicate a massive rightward shift in the US? ” on 2011-08-13
• papermachine estimated 1% and said “Hopping on bandwagon~” on 2011-08-13
• lavalamp estimated 1% on 2011-11-10
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.