“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25.

• gwern estimated 8% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749808 8% (sure why not)” on 2011-08-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-08-13
• NathanMcKnight estimated 0% on 2012-01-21
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-25.