“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750754 15%” on 2011-08-13
• gwern said “don’t entirely understand why she has only 8% for new hampshire and 15% for south carolina – are the new hampshire republicans really that moderate? shouldn’t a likely loss in NH damage her SC chances?” on 2011-08-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-08-13
• faws   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-16.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2012-01-16.
• JoshuaZ said “Hasn’t happened yet. ” on 2012-01-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-01-16
• faws estimated 0% and said “She officially announced that she’s stepping aside over a week ago, and was in the single digits in polls even when she was still running. That she won’t win the primary is a lot clearer than many things judged on this site.” on 2012-01-16
• NathanMcKnight estimated 1% on 2012-01-21
• faws   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-22.