“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade
- gwern estimated 10% on 2011-08-13
- gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750754 15%” on 2011-08-13
- gwern said “don’t entirely understand why she has only 8% for new hampshire and 15% for south carolina – are the new hampshire republicans really that moderate? shouldn’t a likely loss in NH damage her SC chances?” on 2011-08-13
- JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2011-08-13
- faws judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-16.
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction unknown on 2012-01-16.
- JoshuaZ said “Hasn’t happened yet. ” on 2012-01-16
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-01-16
- faws estimated 0% and said “She officially announced that she’s stepping aside over a week ago, and was in the single digits in polls even when she was still running. That she won’t win the primary is a lot clearer than many things judged on this site.” on 2012-01-16
- NathanMcKnight estimated 1% on 2012-01-21
- faws judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-22.
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